近期关于Peter Thiel的讨论持续升温。我们从海量信息中筛选出最具价值的几个要点，供您参考。
首先，Essentially, the futures markets are still hedging on the idea that this war might end and normal trade might resume pretty soon, a position encouraged by the current administration, which claims it has been negotiating with Iran (Iran denied the claim). The tricky thing here is that this is a war between two governments – the Trump administration and the Iranian regime – which both have a clear record of lying a lot. The Trump administration has, for instance, repeatedly claimed a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia was imminent, and that war remains ongoing. The markets are thus forced to try and guess everyone’s actions and intentions from statements that are unreliable. Cards on the table, I think the markets are underestimating the likelihood that this conflict continues for some time. Notably, the United States is moving assets into theater – an MEU, elements of the 82 Airborne – which will take some time to arrive (two weeks for the MEU which is still about a week out as I write this) and set up for operations.
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第三，wars from 2000 or so. but they are different and improved
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面对Peter Thiel带来的机遇与挑战，业内专家普遍建议采取审慎而积极的应对策略。本文的分析仅供参考，具体决策请结合实际情况进行综合判断。